January 19, 2009

Guest Blogger: Russell Blackford: Freedom of religion (or freedom of belief, conscience, and worship).


Why does it matter?

Well, it matters to me. In my previous post I raised the implications of the atheist bus, but it's not just that.

At the same time, I've been writing some submissions to government reviews here in Australia, including a submission to the National Human Rights Consultation and a submission to a separate project on freedom of religion and belief (the latter conducted under the auspices of the Australian Human Rights Commission). Issues to do with freedom of religion have also come up in the process of editing Voices of Disbelief (working title) the book that I'm working on with Udo Schuklenk , to be published in September by Wiley-Blackwell.

One of the issues that arises again and again is how far freedom of religion is some kind of positive right to get resources from others … and, related to this, how far it's a free pass, enabling you to wriggle out of rules applying to everybody else.

I'm going to argue that it's neither of those. But to do so I need to put forward my own view as the what this important freedom is all about. I used to think it was fairly uncontroversial, but I'm increasingly discovering that it isn't. Perhaps you disagree with my account of it, as many folks who are solicitous towards religion evidently do.

The core idea

The point that I really want to hammer in this post is that freedom of religion - which can be expanded to freedom of belief, conscience, and worship - is no more, but no less, than a negative right against the state. Of course, it's a very important one. For a start, it's a guarantee that the state's power of fire and sword (or in modern terms, prison bars and guns) will not be used in free societies to suppress religious beliefs. This negative right against the state is fully compatible with other such negative rights, including freedom of speech. But contrary to what is sometimes asserted, it is not a positive right against the world for it to help you out.

Imagine that Helena is an adherent of, say, Zeusism. She does not thereby have a right that other citizens must give her Zeusist beliefs their credence, deference, or esteem (as opposed to respecting her political right to hold them without persecution). There can be no guarantee that her doctrines will impress others as wise, plausible, or even rational; they may, indeed, impress others as the opposite – perhaps even as demeaning or ridiculous. Moreover, there is no guarantee that others won't use their freedom of speech to express their own unfavourable impressions of Zeusism, even in pointed ways.

Nor does Helena have a right that resources be provided through the tax-transfer system, to ensure that Zeusism persists and flourishes. That is not the original or natural meaning of freedom of religion, and I see no reason to make it the contemporary meaning. Except in some extraordinary circumstance, it is really no business of the state which religious sects flourish and which die out over time.

The freedom involves two fairly simple things:

(1) The state will not attempt to impose religion, including religious doctrines, ceremonies or other practices of worship, or religious moral teachings, on those who do not accept the religion concerned; and

(2) The state will not attempt to suppress any religion, including its doctrines, practices, etc.

These two limbs correspond roughly to the two "freedom of religion" clauses contained in the First Amendment to the US Constitution, commonly known as the Establishment Clause and the Free Exercise Clause. However, I have added explanatory detail to make clear that what is envisaged is a thoroughgoing separation of religious doctrine from state power: neither is to affect the other. Religion cannot demand that the state impose it on the unwilling (because the state is forbidden from doing any such thing); and the state cannot make laws to suppress religious doctrines that it dislikes.

The combination of the two limbs entails that a citizen need not fear that the state will suppress the doctrines that she subscribes to, or the practices that they require. In any event, it cannot do so by direct and deliberate actions. We'll come back to that next time.

Moreover, the citizen need not fear that doctrines and practices that are foreign to her — those she does not subscribe to — will be imposed on her by the might of the state. In the latter case, it makes no difference whether she rejects the doctrines and practices because: (a) she prefers the inconsistent doctrines and practices of her own religion; or (b) she rejects all religious doctrines and has no convictions of her own that could be described accurately as "religious".

Indeed, if she is to have full reassurance that she is safe from state interference with her convictions about deep matters, she needs to know that limb (2) will be interpreted broadly so that the state will not attempt to suppress her convictions even if they are not those of any identifiable religion. Freedom of belief and conscience supplements freedom of merely religious belief; the ordinary meanings of these words suggest that the state will refrain from suppressing any honest convictions on deep matters (or even not-so-deep ones!), regardless whether or not they are taken from religious teachings (and whether or not they are connected with any religion or any identifiable system of thought that has religion-like characteristics).

This two-limbed doctrine provides an important area of freedom for individuals. At the same time, it provides a great benefit to public policy. If the first limb is applied strictly, then there will be no jockeying (or at least no successful jockeying) by different religious (or similar) groups to gain access to the power of the state.

As John Locke knew, back in the seventeenth century, when he argued powerfully for religious tolerance, it eliminates a source of intractable division and conflict. In order to obtain a peaceful political order, we relegate religion to an area of personal belief that is none of the state's business. In developing public policy, the state is "religion blind" and relies on purely secular principles such as the harm principle and the need to provide an economic safety net.

What the freedom doesn't do

Note, however, that there are also limits to what is provided by the two limbs of freedom of religion. There is no requirement that the adherents of one religion (Zeusism for example) should cease to regard its doctrines as absolute Truth or should cease to regard the doctrines of other religions as pernicious. Zeusists may have a doctrine that Mardukism is a lie and a snare, the creation of an evil demon — and they are perfectly free to think this and express it, so long as they don't resort to violence or otherwise break the general law. While a regime of non-persecution may often soften the attitudes of religious sects, as Locke hoped, there is no requirement that they give up on criticising each other, or seeking converts, or even teaching that rival sects are inspired by wickedness.

In short, freedom of religion - or, better, freedom of belief, conscience, and worship - provides a strong protection against the power of the state to persecute infidels and heretics, suppress doctrines, or impose its own view of orthodoxy and religious morality. At the same time, it leaves all concerned with freedom to think what they like of each other. They retain the right to hold to their own doctrines, along with their general freedom of belief, speech, and expression. But nothing about freedom of religion suggests that religious sects or their adherents are "nice", or that they must become so. The state can't tell the Zeusites to like the Mardukites, or reassure the Mardukites that the Zeusites will henceforth look kindly on them. Or vice versa.

There's more that this freedom doesn't do for the religious, I'm afraid, but I'll return to that in Part 2.


Russell Blackford is an Australian philosopher. He has published extensively (novels, short stories, academic monographs and articles, and book reviews) and is editor-in-chief of The Journal of Evolution and Technology. His home blog is Metamagician and the Hellfire Club.

Guest Blogger: Russell Blackford: Implications of the atheist bus.


Over at Metamagician and the Hellfire Club, I've been blogging about the atheist bus.

For those who don't know about it, there's an advertising campaign going on in the UK at the moment involving buses with signs that say:

"There's probably no God.
Now stop worrying and enjoy your life."


I love this slogan, and think it makes the point well. I have a lot more to say about that on my home blog. Briefly, it's a nice, gentle riposte to religious messages on buses that ask us to worry about whether we're "saved" or not, and about what's going to happen to us after death.

Of course, a message like this breaks a powerful taboo. One of the issues that has arisen from the atheist bus campaign relates to a bus driver who objected to driving a bus with this advertisement. As it happened, the bus company handled the issue in a pretty low-key way, and that was probably wise (or so I think) in this unexpected, one-off situation.

It seems that they let him go home on the Saturday afternoon when there was no other bus to drive, though it's not clear to me whether or not they docked his pay for the afternoon. According to the article that I've linked, when he returned to work on Monday he was called into a meeting with managers. He agreed to go back to work, and they agreed that he would only have to drive the buses if there were no others available. That's an attempt to accommodate his position without a commitment that he would be excused from driving the "atheist bus" if it was the only one they could assign to him. I don't mind the way this was handled, although I've seen lots of claims that management was too soft. (I'm sure there are also lots of people who think it outrageous that an employee can be directed to drive a vehicle with such a heinous, anti-Christian sign on it. Hallelujah!)

Over here at Sentient Developments, I don't so much want to get into the merits of what management should have done in this situation. But where do you draw the line? Surely we shouldn't give bus drivers a right of conscientious objection to driving buses with advertisements for products that they dislike or perhaps even consider morally abhorrent. Where does it end if you go down that path? Some will object to advertisements for various meat products, some to advertisements for sexy clothes, some to ... well, God knows what (as it were).

Can Muslim taxi drivers refuse to drive you home from the airport if you're carrying your quota of duty free alcohol? Can Catholic doctors refuse to perform abortions, even if it's necessary to save a woman's life? The possibilities go on and on, and we shouldn't be too quick to give everyone who claims to have a moral or religious scruple the right to decide what work they will or will not do. In some cases, their employer has every right to demand that they carry out the requirements of the job. In other cases, it goes beyond that: there's a strong reason in public policy to avoid people picking and choosing. E.g. a pregnant woman is in a vulnerable situation; she needs to be confident that hospital staff will not even contemplate putting her life at risk if something goes wrong. If an emergency abortion is needed, the doctors and nurses mustn't hesitate to act.

It seems to me that there are two questions here. One is a question about how managers should react when something unexpected happens that leads to a direction to an employee to perform a task that's against his or her conscience. As I said, I don't so much want to talk about that. Briefly, although I'm open to debate, I think that there was good reason for managers be understanding and cautious (if not out of compassion, at least to avoid PR and labour relations fall-out).

But the other issue relates to a more general question: just how far we should go as a society in accommodating people with religious scruples ... even scruples that stop them from doing work that they know very well is part of the job, whether it be filling prescriptions for the contraceptive pill, serving alcohol, or probably many other examples that could be given. And it's not just in the workplace. More generally, how far does your religion give you a right to conscientious objection to rules that are binding on everyone else?

This post is just to get us thinking. When I come back tonight (my time), I'm going to have quite a lot to say about what "freedom of religion" really amounts to. I don't believe it's the free pass that's often claimed. Or we shouldn't let it be.

Russell Blackford is an Australian philosopher. He has published extensively (novels, short stories, academic monographs and articles, and book reviews) and is editor-in-chief of The Journal of Evolution and Technology. His home blog is Metamagician and the Hellfire Club.

January 18, 2009

Larger Milky Way has implications for the Drake Equation and the Great Silence -- or does it?


Apropos of Russell Blackford's recent posts about the Fermi Paradox, it should be mentioned that the Milky Way is 50% larger than previously thought. This will likely have implications to our appreciation of the Drake Equation and the Fermi Paradox.

What tipped cosmologists off was the discovery that our galaxy is spinning 15% faster than formerly assumed. The lead researcher on the project, Mark Reid of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, estimates that the Milky Way's spin is about 914,000 km/hour, significantly higher than the widely accepted value of 792,000 km/hour.

The only thing that could account for this increased spin rate was more mass -- a lot more mass. As a result of Reid's findings, our models now need to account for a galaxy that is 50% heavier, 15% wider and contains a mind-boggling 3 trillion stars! That is an astounding 750% increase from 400 billion.

You might want to pause for a moment and think about this.

This is remarkable news and the implications of these findings are going to take a while to sink in. My first reaction was to consider the implications to the Fermi Paradox. Does a significantly larger Milky Way accentuate or diminish the problem that is the Great Silence?

First off, it throws previous Drake Equation estimates out the window. Blogger Paul Hughes has already crunched some numbers and has come up with his own estimate: he believes there may be as many as 12 billion Earth-like planets in our galaxy capable of supporting liquid water and in turn carbon-based life as we know it (Hughes doesn't take the equation beyond that as he was inquiring into the number of potentially habitable planets).

But as many of my readers know, I'm not a great fan of the Drake Equation to begin with. It's in dire need of an upgrade and it completely fails to account for the cosmological development of the galaxy and other temporal aspects. That said, it's safe to assume that the probability of extraterrestrial life emerging in the Galaxy is now significantly higher than it was before -- both in the Galaxy's long history and now.

Second, the new and improved Milky Way throws off previous calculations as to how long it would take an advanced civilization to inhabit all four corners of the galaxy. An extraterrestrial migration wave would likely be comprised of self-replicating colonization probes that spread out across the galaxy at an exponentially increasing rate. Previous estimates placed complete Galaxy-wide colonization at a few million years. Given that we were wrong about the size of the Milky Way and the number of stars, we have to conclude that it would take longer to colonize the entire galaxy.

Just how much longer I'm not sure [sounds like a future project in the making], but given that we're talking about exponentially increasing migration rates I would have to think that we are not talking about an order of magnitude. And even if it does take significantly longer, we still have to take the extreme age of the Milky Way into consideration and the likelihood that intelligence may have emerged in the Galaxy as long as 4.5 billion years ago. The age of the Galaxy is still disproportionately longer than even the most pessimistic colonization rate estimates.

What does all this mean?

Well, nothing really. The Great Silence is obviously still in effect and something's still screwy with the Universe. A bigger Milky Way means that there's likely more intelligent life in the Galaxy than we had previously assumed, but that interstellar colonization and communication rates are slightly longer.

The Fermi Paradox lives on.

Peter Singer: The 'test-tube baby' at 30


Bioethicist and philosopher Peter Singer has posted an OpEd for The Guardian in which he reflects on the 30th anniversary of the first IVF procedure, or what was known as 'test tube babies' at the time. "Deeply controversial at first," writes Singer, "IVF has fought back ethical and religious objections to become commonplace."

In the article, Singer takes the Vatican to task on their unwavering opposition to the procedure. As usual, he does a remarkable job tearing down their often nonsensical and inconsistent positions:

The Catholic church has not moved away from its opposition to IVF. In a recently released instruction, Dignitas Personae, the Church's Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith objects to IVF on several grounds, including the fact that many embryos are created in the process, and few survive. This outcome is not, however, very different from natural conception, for the majority of embryos conceived by sexual intercourse also fail to implant in the uterine wall, with the woman often not even knowing that she was ever "pregnant."

In addition, the Vatican objects to the fact that conception is the result of a "technical action" rather "a specific act of the conjugal union." But while any couple would prefer to conceive a child without the intervention of doctors, that option is not available for infertile couples. In those circumstances, it is harsh to say to a couple that they cannot have their own genetic child at all.

It also appears contrary to the broad thrust of the church's teaching about marriage and the family as the appropriate context for rearing children. Dignitas Personae says that new human life should be "generated through an act which expresses the reciprocal love between a man and a woman." But if by that the church is referring to sexual intercourse, then it surely has an unduly narrow view of what kinds of acts can express reciprocal love between a man and a woman. Taking the several inconvenient and sometimes unpleasant steps required to have a child together by means of IVF can be, and often is, the result of a much more deliberate and reciprocally loving act than sexual intercourse.

I would say that the elegance and sophistication of Singer's religious critiques are matched by no one -- not by Richard Dawkins and certainly not by Christopher Hitchens. As an aside, be sure to read Singer's article "Good God?" to get a sense of what I mean.

Back to the Guardian article, Singer concludes by noting that there are now other more pressing ethical concerns facing IVG, including accessibility issues, who should be allowed to use it, and under what circumstances.

Read the entire article.

Bye bye to the Last Sucker

The most disgusting U.S. presidency in memory is finally and mercifully coming to an end and it would be remiss of me to not make mention of it. But on this fine occasion, I will give Ministry's Al Jourgensen the last word on George W. Bush, the 'Last Sucker':

The Last Sucker, Ministry

Born and raised in the USA
I got a different type of DNA
I got a bloodline from Texas to Maine
We run the world like a parlor game

I got twins and a Stepford wife
I never had to work a day in my life
I never studied but got my degree
I never had to with my family tree

Now I'm the last sucker
Now I'm the last one
No longer in charge
Of anyone!

I got others tell me what to say
I'm like an actor in a tragic play
They give me speeches
I cant understand
It doesn't matter
As long as no one else can

Now I'm the last sucker
Now I'm the last one
No longer in charge
Of anyone!

Last sucker sorry fucker
Nice try
Last sucker Sorry fucker
Bye bye

Now it's my turn for something to say
You made me king so I could have my way
The people hate me and I don't know why
They hate me more with each and every lie

Now I'm the last sucker
Now I'm the last one
No longer in charge
Of anyone!

Last sucker Sorry fucker
Nice try
Last sucker Sorry fucker
Bye bye

Thank you for allowing me this indulgence and a moment of gross partisanship. We now resume our regular programming.

Guest Blogger: Russell Blackford: Where's my alien civilisation? Part 2.

Where were we?

This year we have Darwin's 200th birthday and the 150th anniversary of the publication of On the Origin of Species. It's a natural time for thoughts to turn to issues about the origins of life and the trajectory of biological evolution. It was in that context that I found myself, this week, thinking again about the Fermi paradox and the mysteries of the Drake equation, after some discussion of these over on Richard Dawkins' site. The discussion on Dawkins' site got a bit acrimonious, for some reason, but I'm sure we can avoid that here.

At the end of Part 1., I left the Fermi paradox with questions about the fate of technological civilisations. Do they self-destruct? Do they become unrecognisable to us? Or does the rate of technological progress flatten out, in which case we are not approaching a technological singularity – rather, we are somewhere on the steep part of a sigmoid curve.

Deeper into Drake's equation

I suspect that the evidence that we're on a sigmoid curve is pretty much illusory. E.g., the evidence from science fiction is probably just evidence of limits to our imaginative capacities. Still, it's not a scenario that can be ruled out (and it seems just as possible to me as the technological singularity scenario). It's certainly conceivable that at least some kinds of technological progress flatten out. At 1 per cent of the speed of light it would take us over 400 years to reach the nearest stars. We don't know how much longer to reach the nearest worlds that could easily be colonised. We tend to think that the problems will be solved in millions of years of future progress, but we may not be good at working out what problems can and cannot be solved, at least easily enough to be worth the effort, even over very long tracts of time.

That said, I'd prefer to look for an explanation deeper in the Drake equation, which uses several variables to calculate the number of technologically advanced species in our galaxy. The variables include the average rate of star formation, the fraction of stars that have planets, the fraction of planets that can potentially support life, the fraction of these that actually develop life, the fraction of these where intelligent life evolves, the fraction of these that develop civilisations that send detectable signs of themselves into space, and the length of time that such civilisations exist.

Some of the fractions that feed into the Drake equation may be very small indeed, so small as to make technologically advanced species, and the civilisations they create, incredibly rare. It's consistent with what we now know that the conditions required for life to form are extremely fortuitous and unusual. It may need very rare combinations of environmental factors. And even then, you can have life staying at levels of neurological complexity that don't lead to technology.

We know that life can stay at levels of intelligence well below our own pretty much indefinitely. If not for one or more catastrophic events at the end of the Cretaceous Period, including the bolide impact that caused the Chicxulub Crater, Earth might still be dominated by dinosaurs, which might not have developed any impressive levels of intelligence. They hadn't done so in the previous 150-odd million years, so there's no reason to think they would have in the past 65 million years.

We really need to know a lot more, and we soon reach a point where people are relying on nothing more than hunches. With that disclaimer, my hunch is that the evolution of a technological civilisation to our sort of level or beyond is a statistically improbable event. I.e., it is an event that takes place quite infrequently in an average galaxy. I can't be much more precise about what "quite infrequently" means, except to say that I wouldn't be at all surprised if human beings were the only species in our galaxy to have created technological civilisations.

There's a lot of things we'd need to know before we could say anything more confidently, or more precise, than that. E.g., we'd need a well-corroborated theory of the origin of life to give us an idea of how rare the conditions for it really are. We just don't have one. We have a well-corroborated theory of how life diversifies - neo-Darwinian evolutionary biology - but not of how it gets started. The best we have is an idea of what sort of theory would be a workable account of abiogenesis – some kind of theory of early kinds of self-replicating molecules that were able to develop into the building blocks for the kinds of life forms from which we, and the rest of contemporary life on Earth, all eventually diversified.

There are so many unknowns about all this that I think we're a long way from being able to deduce any pessimistic conclusions about humanity's future. Even if life itself is more common in the universe than appears so far, the evolution of human-level intelligence might be very rare indeed. Even if technological change ends up following a sigmoid curve, we don't know how to unpack the detail of that – it might mean that space travel at appreciable fractions of the speed of light is going to turn out more difficult than we commonly assume … but, for all that, our ability to transform our capacities may reach levels far beyond what is current. We can't predict the future, though we can forecast and consider various possibilities and scenarios.

Still waiting

Meanwhile, I'm still waiting for my alien civilisation. I'm also waiting for my jet car. If it doesn't turn up before I shuffle off this mortal coil, I don't know if that's a reason for pessimism or optimism.

Where has the damn thing gone?


Russell Blackford is an Australian philosopher. He has published extensively (novels, short stories, academic monographs and articles, and book reviews) and is editor-in-chief of The Journal of Evolution and Technology. His home blog is Metamagician and the Hellfire Club.

Guest Blogger: Russell Blackford: Where's my alien civilisation? Part 1.

Fermi's paradox

I'm sure my readers are familiar with Fermi's paradox. Some of you may even feel it's debated to death lately, but in this great memorial year (Darwin's 200th birthday, among other things) we'll be hearing a lot more about the origins of life and the trajectory of evolution. Fermi's paradox connects with all that, and I'll get to the connection in Part 2.

Here's a quick refresher. Enrico Fermi observed that there seems to be a contradiction between the fact that we have not encountered alien civilisations and facts about the scale of the universe (and, indeed, our own galaxy). The vastness of space, the enormous number of stars and planets, and the age of the stars all add up to a presumption that there should be plenty of life Out There, some of it much older than life on Earth. If there are intelligent beings in space that began with millions of years of head start over us, why don't they have technological civilisations far more advanced than our own? But if they do, why have we never encountered such things as alien space craft, probes, or radio signals?

Colonising the galaxy

Consider that the diameter of the galaxy is about 100,000 light years. Imagine for the sake of argument that there's a technological civilisation somewhere near the galactic centre. Then imagine that it has the capacity to send out space ships or self-replicating probes or similar devices at even 1 per cent of the speed of light. It could get a ship or a probe out to the galactic rim in something like five million years.

If the alien civilisation sends out a few ships every thousand years, they will soon mount up in numbers. Over a few million years, it could send out many thousands of ships. If the colonies founded by those ships themselves got in on the act and sent out ships of their own, and the colonies they founded sent out ships, we get ourselves an exponential increase.

It looks as if a sufficiently advanced and determined civilisation could colonise the galaxy, to a greater or lesser level of density, in "only" a few million years (a tiny amount of time in geological or astrophysical terms). Perhaps not all advanced technological civilisations have that ambition, but it would only take one that has the ambition plus a few million years' start on us, and the galaxy should be widely colonised by now – at least to some density level that we’d notice. Where are the space craft, the probes, the signals, maybe even the astrophysical engineering projects?

There seems to be good evidence that the galaxy doesn't contain even one civilisation that is old enough, advanced enough, and determined enough. So, why?

You might think that if the evolution of technological civilisations were a common event in the universe, there'd be at least one civilisation like this somewhere in the galaxy, with its billions of stars. Even if it started out on the distant rim, far away from us on the other side, that's just going to make it take a few million more years to reach us. So allow ten million years of head start – that's still nothing in the kind of timeframe we're talking about. If technological civilisations are commonplace, there should be some that are those millions of years ahead of us (and some will come along behind us, trailing by a few million years).

So, where are they?

Might it be that creating space craft that can travel reliably at even 1 per cent of the speed of light is harder than we assume? Or maybe advanced technological civilisations tend to destroy themselves? Or do they tend to stop expanding their populations, as human beings are doing? We're really guessing.

The most pessimistic solution is that they tend to destroy themselves. From the point of view of our own species, that solution would suggest that our self-destuction lies ahead. If we discover life elsewhere, then, it's bad news: the more common life is, the more common technological civilisations should be, and hence the more likely it is that the reason we don't see them is that they destroy themselves. QED.

But I don't think that's the best way to look at it. There are other possibilities. Perhaps technological civilisations tend to reach a technological singularity point, at which stage they are transformed so comprehensively and deeply that we wouldn't even recognise them. They might miniaturise themselves in some way that makes expansion into space pointless, or they might switch over to some kind of substrate that we would never recognise as a form of life (partly, no doubt, for their own convenience, but perhaps partly to avoid interfering with vulnerable civilisations at our level).

Another possibility – one that might bother my transhumanist friends almost as much as the self-destruction account – is that the rate of advance of technology does not accelerate to a singularity. I.e., the mathematical relationship between time and technological capacity may not be an exponential function . Perhaps it will turn out that we are now somewhere on the relatively steep part of a sigmoid curve. In that case, perhaps advanced technological civilisations never obtain the level of technological capacity that enables them to go out and colonise galaxies. Maybe there are hard limits to what is possible, or perhaps there are universal limits to desire. If this is the correct picture, transhumanists should be disappointed – what lies ahead for the human species may not be anywhere near as radical as they hope.

The sigmoid curve interpretation has a kind of intuitive rightness about it (which doesn't mean it's correct). First, when science fiction writers describe the future they tend to imagine reaching some higher technological level and things then going on without huge change for millions of years. But of course the content of science fiction might just be evidence of limits to our current imaginative capacities.

We might also be impressed by the now-embarrassing question, "Dude, where's my jet car?" It sometimes seems that, even as the power of computer hardware continues to follow Moore's Law, progress in what we can actually do with it seems to be slowing down. "Where's my robot maid?" If so, human technological potential may be limited, and we need to imagine the future of the world with bounded horizons. Not that that need lead to crippling pessimism – it would not demonstrate our inability to produce great advances in, say, health and life span. What is and is not possible may be different from what we intuit in advance.

I think, though, that there's another way to look at this. I'll be back in a few hours to go deeper into the Drake equation.


Russell Blackford is an Australian philosopher. He has published extensively (novels, short stories, academic monographs and articles, and book reviews) and is editor-in-chief of The Journal of Evolution and Technology. His home blog is Metamagician and the Hellfire Club.

January 17, 2009

Our holographic universe


This month's New Scientist features a cover article about the theoretic possibility that our universe may be a giant hologram. This revelation isn't anything new, but there now appears to be potential evidence in favor of the suggestion.

For a number of months, team-members working on the GEO600, a device that measures gravity waves, were confused about some inexplicable noise that was plaguing the giant detector. Researcher Craig Hogan offered an explanation: the GEO600 has stumbled upon the fundamental limit of space-time - the point where space-time stops behaving like the smooth continuum Einstein described and instead dissolves into "grains," just as a newspaper photograph dissolves into dots as you zoom in.

"If the GEO600 result is what I suspect it is," says Hogan, "then we are all living in a giant cosmic hologram." The New Scientist article explains:
The holograms you find on credit cards and banknotes are etched on two-dimensional plastic films. When light bounces off them, it recreates the appearance of a 3D image. In the 1990s physicists Leonard Susskind and Nobel prizewinner Gerard 't Hooft suggested that the same principle might apply to the universe as a whole. Our everyday experience might itself be a holographic projection of physical processes that take place on a distant, 2D surface.
Confirming the holographic principle would be a big help to researchers trying to unite quantum mechanics and Einstein's theory of gravity. Hogan contends that if the holographic principle is confirmed, it rules out all approaches to quantum gravity that do not incorporate the holographic principle. Conversely, it would be a boost for those that do, like those derived from string theory and matrix theory. "Ultimately," says Hogan, "we may have our first indication of how space-time emerges out of quantum theory."

My favorite quote from the article comes from Hogan: "It looks like GEO600 is being buffeted by the microscopic quantum convulsions of space-time."

Mmmmm, microscopic quantum convulsions of space-time.

Okay, so you're a hologram. Carry on.

Photo Credit: Kenn Brown of Mondolithic Studios.

Loophole to Asimov's Laws of Robotics [Humor]

Modded iRobot uses vanishing point for navigation

"I was responsible for vision-based navigation of the robot within the hallways. I used the vanishing points from the parallel lines present indoors to compute the robot heading. This was then fed into a controller to control the direction of the robot for navigation. The computation was made robust to change in light conditions, false detections, occlusions by a layered filtering approach that included RANSAC and least squares filtering among others." -- Pratap Tokekar

Cutest robot ever?

I've been elected to the Humanity+/WTA Board

The results of the Humanity+ (formerly World Transhumanist Association) Board elections came in yesterday and I was successfully voted in. Thanks to everyone for their support.

Sato: Are We Close to Creating Super-Humans?


There's a good transhumanist-themed article by Rebecca Sato at The Daily Galaxy (which I highly recommend). Sato wonders if it would be so bad to use genetics to create enhanced humans:
What if a relatively simple procedure could make an individual and his or her offspring more compassionate, intelligent and thoughtful? Currently scientists are using gene therapy in an attempt to wipe out disease, but what if we could save many more lives by wiping out war instead though engineering humans to be less bloodthirsty, hateful and narrow-minded?

After all, Nature isn’t always right. Nature has naturally selected many people to carry the burden of uncomfortable and often lethal genetic disorders. If nature knows best, then shouldn’t we quit trying to “improve” upon nature by “curing” people of genetic conditions we consider inferior? Many say we shouldn’t change human genetics, UNLESS it’s the RIGHT thing to do. Who gets to decide where the line is between righteous endeavor and the corruption of nature? These are the questions facing our generation.

Read the entire article.

January 16, 2009

Russell Blackford guest blogging here next week

Starting next week I'll be introducing a new feature on Sentient Developments: guest bloggers. Each month I will invite a writer and thinker who I admire and respect and whose work speaks in someway to SentDev's subject matter. Guests will be encouraged to post at least one article a day for an entire week.

I'm proud to announce that progressive Australian bioethicist, attorney and science fiction writer Russell Blackford PhD LLB will be the first guest blogger on Sentient Developments. Look for Russell's posts to begin next week on Monday January 19.

Here's Russell's bio:
I am an Australian writer, philosopher, and critic. I'm editor-in-chief of The Journal of Evolution and Technology, an on-line, peer-reviewed journal. As a creative writer, I specialise in science fiction and fantasy. My non-fiction work frequently deals with issues involving the human, or posthuman, future. I am interested in the ethics, and possible regulation, of emerging technologies, and the future of religion, morality, art, literature, political organisation, and human nature itself. Some of my articles are available on my web site. My formal qualifications include First Class Honours degrees in Arts and Law, a Ph.D on the supposed return to myth in contemporary literature, and a Master of Bioethics degree. I have now qualified for a second Ph.D (in philosophy this time); this may seem extravagant, but I have my reasons!
In addition, Dr. Blackford is a Fellow at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies and he blogs over at the excellent Metamagician and the Hellfire Club. Be sure to check it out.

January 13, 2009

Our non-arbitrary universe: A SentDev Classic


As scientists delve deeper and deeper into the unsolved mysteries of the universe, they are discovering that a number of cosmological parameters are excruciatingly specific. So specific, in fact, that any minor alteration to key parameters would throw the entire universe off kilter and result in a system completely unfriendly to life.

Consequently, some have considered this as evidence for a designer, giving rise to teleological arguments like intelligent design. Others claim that the universe is spontaneously finely tuned.*

There are several theories that try to explain why the universe is so finely tuned: 1) anthropic observation in consideration of an ensemble of universes [Carter, Leslie], 2) the "participatory anthropic principle" which implies that observers force the universe into existence [Wheeler], and 3) that natural selection has endowed the universe with its particular characteristics [Smolin, Smart].

On the last point, that of natural selection, the obvious question is, if the universe is a replicating entity, and if its attributes are the result of natural selection, why must the universe also be so biophilic? In other words, couldn't the physics of the universe develop such that it was merely a replicating entity that didn't necessarily have to support life?

One possible answer is that there are many types of spontaneously replicating universes, some of which support life, and some of which do not. If this is the case, we happen to observe one such universe that supports life, and our existence is irrelevant to our universe's life cycle.

However, if we find that the universe we live in is the only feasible type of universe possible, and that it is a replicative system prone to selectional processes, then we might have to conclude that intelligent life plays a crucial role in the universe's life cycle. In other words, advanced intelligences help the universe to replicate.

As Freeman Dyson once wrote, "The more I examine the universe and study the details of its architecture, the more evidence I find that the universe in some sense must have known that we were coming. There are some striking examples in the laws of nuclear physics of numerical accidents that seem to conspire to make the universe habitable."

I first encountered this argument via John Smart's developmental singularity hypothesis, where he suggests that advanced intelligences may spawn new baby universes soon after the technological singularity event. More recently, I discovered an article on KurzweilAI by James N. Gardner in which he argues for the selfish biocosm hypothesis.

Gardner's argument is quite interesting. He writes that two recent discoveries have imparted a renewed sense of urgency to investigations of the anthropic qualities of our cosmos, specifically 1) the value of dark energy density is exceedingly small but not quite zero, and 2) the number of different solutions permitted by M-theory is astronomical -- measured not in millions or billions but in googles or googleplexes. Again, what he's suggesting is that the universe is finely tuned to the point of absurdity.

According to Gardner's theory, "the laws and constants of physics function as the cosmic equivalent of DNA, guiding a cosmologically extended evolutionary process and providing a blueprint for the replication of new life-friendly progeny universes."

As Gardner notes, theories of cosmological eschatology have previously been articulated by Kurzweil, Wheeler and Dyson, all of whom have essentially predicted that, in Gardner's words, "the ongoing process of biological and technological evolution is sufficiently robust and unbounded that, in the far distant future, a cosmologically extended biosphere could conceivably exert a global influence on the physical state of the cosmos." Some cosmologists, like Milan Cirkovic, have argued that the universe's life cycle should not be studied without referrence to the influence of intelligent life.

Specifically, it is thought that intelligences, in conjunction with advancing technologies, will act as "von Neumann controllers" within a cosmologically extended biosphere and function as a "von Neumann duplicator" in a hypothesized process of cosmological replication.

I find this topic to be exceptionally interesting, and I hope that more consideration is given to it in the coming years, particularly the issue of cosmological eschatology and the role that intelligences may have in the life cycle of the universe.
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*Browsing through Wikipedia, I found some examples of 'fine tuning':
  • The nuclear strong force holds together the particles in the nucleus of an atom. If the strong nuclear force were slightly weaker, by as little as 2%, multi-proton nuclei would not hold together and hydrogen would be the only element in the universe. If the strong force were slightly stronger, by as little as 1%, hydrogen would be rare in the universe and elements heavier than iron (elements resulting from fusion during the explosion of supernovae) would also be rare.
  • The nuclear weak force affects the behavior of leptons (e.g. neutrinos, electrons, and muons) that do not participate in strong nuclear reactions. If the weak force were slightly larger, neutrons would decay more readily, and therefore would be less available, and little or no helium would be produced from the big bang. Without the necessary helium, heavy elements sufficient for the constructing of life as we know it would not be made by the nuclear furnaces inside stars. If the weak force were slightly smaller, the big bang would burn most or all of the hydrogen into helium, with a subsequent over-abundance of heavy elements made by stars, and life as we know it would not be possible.
  • The electromagnetic coupling constant binds electrons to protons in atoms. The characteristics of the orbits of electrons about atoms determines to what degree atoms will bond together to form molecules. If the electromagnetic coupling constant were different atoms and molecules would be different; maybe not even exist.
  • The ratio of electron to proton mass also determines the characteristics of the orbits of electrons about nuclei. A proton is 1836 times more massive than an electron. If the electron to proton mass ratio were different, atoms and molecules would be different — or maybe not even exist.
  • The entropy level of the universe affects the condensation of massive systems. The universe contains about one billion photons for every baryon. This makes the universe extremely entropic, i.e. a very efficient radiator and a very poor engine. If the entropy level for the universe were slightly larger, no galactic systems would form (and therefore no stars). If the entropy level were slightly smaller, the galactic systems that formed would effectively trap radiation and prevent any fragmentation of the systems into stars. In either case, the universe would be devoid of stars and solar systems.
  • The force of gravity affects the interaction of particles. In order for life as we know it to form, the force of gravity must be 1040 (10 to the 40th power) times weaker than the force of electromagnetism. The relationship of gravity to electromagnetism as it currently exists is this: The positively charged particles must equal in charge the numbers negatively charged particles or else electromagnetism will dominate gravity, and stars, galaxies and planets will not form. The numbers of electrons must equal the numbers of protons to better than one part of 1037 (10 to the 37th power).

This article was originally published on March 2, 2006.

January 12, 2009

10 science fiction films for the 'thinking man'

Jeff Giles of Rotten Tomatoes has put together a list of what he believes to be the top ten sci-fi films for the thinking man:
10. Planet of the Apes
9. Dark City
8. Sleeper
7. Gattaca
6. Primer
5. Children of Men
4. Solaris (1972)
3. Close Encounters of the Third Kind
2. Blade Runner
1. 2001: A Space Odyssey
I think #1 and #2 are spot on, but Solaris deserves third spot. Gattaca and Children of Men are both great films, but a bit overrated -- particularly the latter. Close Encounters at #3!? And where the hell is The Matrix and Ghost in the Shell?

Oy, I need to straighten this out; Giles's list has some problems. Here's my (i.e. the definitive) list of the best "thinking man's" science fiction:
10. The Day the Earth Stood Still (1951)
9. Planet of the Apes
8. Contact
7. AI
6. Ghost in the Shell
5. Metropolis
4. The Matrix
3. Solaris (1972)
2. Blade Runner
1. 2001: A Space Odyssey

January 10, 2009

January 7, 2009

I'm running for the Humanity+ Board

Board elections are coming up for Humanity+ (aka H+) and I've decided to throw my name into the hat. For those who may be out of the loop, Humanity+ is the artist formerly known as the World Transhumanist Association. If you are one of the 500,000 people who read the inaugural edition of Humanity+ Magazine then you've heard of H+. You may have also heard about Convergence08, the futurist conference that was held last November in Mountain View, CA and co-organized by H+.

Here's an excerpt from my candidacy statement:
After meticulously studying the past to earn a degree in history, I turned my attention to science, technology and the future. I'm now one of Canada's leading futurists and a specialist in assessing the impacts of technology on human performance.

To this end I have compiled an extensive portfolio of writing and speaking on these themes. You may have seen or heard me passionately prognosticating about science and technology on CBC's
The Hour, the BBC, Radio Free Europe, in the pages of The Guardian, or on public transit. It's also likely that you've come across my work through my popular and award winning blog, Sentient Developments.

I am certainly no stranger to the transhumanist and futurist communities. Back in 2002 I helped launch Betterhumans, the first explicitly pro human enhancement e-zine on the web. It was during this same year that I co-founded the Toronto Transhumanist Association, an active organization that I preside over to this very day.

In addition, I served on the WTA Board of Directors from 2004-06 and chaired the TransVision '04 conference in Toronto. I currently serve on the Board for the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies and I am the Director of Operations for Commune Media Inc., a marketing and communications company that specializes in optimizing web content; along these lines, I have more than 10 years' experience in media, arts and communications.

Now is a very exciting time for Humanity+ as it works to redefine itself and take organizational futurism to the next level. As a member of the Humanity+ Board I will leverage my work ethic, skills and experience to help make Humanity+ the premier futurist group in the world.
Now, I know what you're thinking: you're thinking that you want to vote for me. But you remembered that you're not a member of Humanity+/WTA. So here's what you need to do: go to the WTA registration page and become a member for a mere USD$50. Then, when the polls open next week, you'll be able to vote for me.

Thank you in advance!

Hawking: We must colonize space in order to survive (video)

Robotic evolution video


Tip of the hat to Jeriaska.

BNT interviews Jason Silva on radical life extension

Ian MacKenzie of Brave New Traveler talks to Jason Silva, a 26-year old film maker and outspoken immortalist.

MacKenzie asks, "You quote The Immortalist in your film - how did you come across it and why does it resonate with you?" Silver responds:
After watching the brilliant film Vanilla Sky, I spent hours on the internet researching Cryonic Suspension.

This idea that we could preserve ourselves until the technology was there to repair the wear and tear of aging and eventual pathology.

Like the lucid dream that was presented in the film, if we removed finitude from the human condition, life could be transformed into an eternal now- no more existential anxiety.

I started reading about Ray Kurzweil and Aubrey de Grey, brilliant thinkers who professed that through scientific engineering we would someday conquer death.

The philosophical implications and motivations behind this, however, were best described by Alan Harrington’s masterpiece, “The Immortalist”- a manifesto of sorts that dared to challenge our cosmic inferiority complex and complacent attitude about our “inevitable” demise, and instead challenged us to engineer (with SCIENCE) an ageless and divine state of being.

This is where science would satisfy the yearnings of existential man, who for too long was suffering as a consequence of being aware of his mortality.
Here's Silva's short film, "The Immortalists":