Back from America; some observations

I just returned from a quick three-day trip to Sunnyvale, California where I attended the IEET's Global Catastrophic Risks symposium and Convergence08. Both events were a great success and very well attended. I hope the organizers do it again next year.

A couple of quick observational notes about the United States:

The U.S. recession is worse and far more pervasive than I thought.

Listening to the various conversations this past weekend I realized how widespread and severe the current recession is. People were talking openly about unemployed family members, lost savings and devastated stock portfolios. There's a lot of dread going around.

It's not nearly this bad in Canada, so I've been somewhat sheltered from the reality.

And driving through Silicon Valley I saw signs of the recession first-hand. The light industrial areas were sprinkled with office buildings that had 'for lease' signs posted out front.

But that said....

Americans have Obama fever and they have it bad.

And I think this is good. I can't remember the last time I heard so much optimism from my American friends and colleagues. Everybody is projecting and hanging their hopes on the incoming administration; they're all abuzz with anticipation.

People, whether they're doing scientific research, advocating for more progressive public policy, or simply looking to see something done about the economy, are planning for change and rejigging their agendas accordingly. It was very exciting to see and hard to not get caught up in all the excitement. It's as if a straight-jacket has been taken off the U.S. public.

And lastly, I love the attitude in Silicon Valley. Never mind the influence of the current state of the economy or Obama, I know from past experience that the people in Silicon Valley simply think differently.

It's more than just a tech-sector or a place to work. It's where people genuinely feel that unique and advanced technologies can and should be brought into the world -- and that they are the ones who can make it happen. Silicon valley imbues a sense of wonder and possibility.

And it's the only place in the world where the word 'Singularity' is practically in the vernacular; you say it and nobody even blinks.

An Obama reality check

Before my readers conclude that I’ve completely lost it over Obama I figured it’s time I say something a bit more critical about the situation in the U.S. and the incoming administration.

Barack Obama, as so many people are willing to acknowledge, is about to assume the presidency at a very difficult time. He’s got his work cut out for him and the expectation that he’ll play the miracle worker will most assuredly be dashed. Before we know it it’ll be politics as usual in Washington; the honeymoon will eventually come to an end.

Eleven weeks before he takes the reigns, Obama’s effectiveness and the amount of power he’ll be able to exert remains an open question. I’m reminded of the excitement over Bill Clinton’s election in 1992 and the expectations placed on him as a Rhodes Scholar. He was supposed to transform the White House and re-invigorate America. Clinton was never able to deliver on all the hype and hope; politics simply got in the way of all the excitement.

So, what makes us think that Obama, despite all his charisma and apparent political acumen, will be any more successful than previous presidents? It’s the same United States, after all, with the same institutions, petty politics, and entrenched two-party flavor.

Moreover, Obama hasn’t given any real indication that he’ll be anything other than a traditionally moderate Democratic president. Obama may have paved through some unprecedented political inroads on election night, but the popular ranking between himself and John McCain was shockingly narrow. Obama’s mandate is not as flamingly progressive as many have made it out to be. To go beyond it would not only be political suicide in a stubbornly conservative country, it would run contrary to his rather vanilla election promises.

Many Americans, I'm afraid, have confused his campaigning messages of "hope" and "yes we can" with that of actual progressive politics.

This is also an issue of relativity. Bush’s administration was so brazenly conservative, backward and hawkish that even a centrist administration will appear liberal by comparison. Republican accusations that Obama is running on a socialist platform will seem rather farcical in short order.

All this said, Obama does appear ready to re-invigorate some crucial areas like scientific research and the development of key technologies. He also looks poised to make the environment an important issue again.

Consequently, it looks like Obama will be engaged more in correcting the damage done by the previous administration than by introducing unprecedented reforms.

In terms of the economy, like the Democratic president before him, Obama has inherited an America in recession. As a result, his spending options will be severely constrained. Democrats may have firm control of both houses of Congress, but it will still be difficult for them to make due on a number of election promises.

Pulling back on George W. Bush’s tax cuts for the rich won’t be a problem, but introducing a new health care program may prove to be more difficult. Over 50 million Americans currently lack medical coverage; the cost to implement and cover this segment will be significant – even if it will be an insurance-based system supported by federal subsidies.

From a social perspective, the election of a black president hardly means that racism is over in the United States. Yes, it means a lot in terms of how far race relations have come in that country, but the reality is that the U.S. is still a country of privilege for whites. It will still be a long while before there is economic and social parity in that country – if ever.

As for foreign relations, it is here, I fear, that Obama will encounter the most trouble. And not because he’s inexperienced or because he has flawed policies (which in some cases he does), but because of the volatile geopolitical climate that has taken hold. There is simply too much happening in the world that is simply outside of his control; the level of complexity is daunting. Before he knows it, Obama will be spinning plates.

Obama plans to pull troops from Iraq by 2010. It is unclear as to how smoothly that transition will go, how the Iraqi regime will fare without U.S. help, and how Middle Eastern relations will change after the departure of American troops.

At the same time, Obama is touting the same kind of 'war on terror' rhetoric that was characteristic of the Bush administration. This may have been a political decision, but he has gone on the record of saying that he will continue to support American attacks on Pakistani territory without Islamabad’s permission. He also plans on increasing troop strength and the level of engagement in Afghanistan (a decision that will have a significant impact on Canadian and other coalition forces).

There’s also the issue of Iran and its efforts to build the bomb. The extent to which Obama will work to prevent this from happening and to protect Israel from a potential nuclear-armed foe is unclear.

And then there’s Russia and their recent efforts to re-enter the world stage as a significant geopolitical player. This is a story that’s far from over, particularly as the United States works to maintain a presence in the Caucasus region.

Looking to the future, it’s also possible that at some point during Obama’s tenure that an unforeseen catastrophe or global incident may occur (such as another 9/11 type event or a pandemic). Such a turn of events would come to characterize the administration and challenge it in terms of its potentially unprecedented scale. Hopefully nothing of the sort will happen.

My feeling, though, is that Obama would rise to the challenge. He would, at the very least, assume a leadership position unlike George W. Bush before him and guide his people through any potential turmoil.

Indeed, given the fiasco that was the Bush administration, Americans will likely have more patience and understanding for Obama than for other incoming presidents. They’re likely going to cut him some slack and recognize the difficult challenges that lie ahead.

As far as many Americans are concerned, it’s more about intention at this point than results. They finally have a president at the helm that they don’t need to be embarrassed about. Someone who, at the very least, is ready to set things right.

Ahmadinejad speaks at Columbia University instead of being arrested

My jaw hit the floor when I learned that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivered a speech at Columbia University today.

Say what?

This lunatic should have been arrested the moment he stepped off the plane.

On what charges, you might ask? Okay, let's quickly go over his track record. Ahmadinejad's Iran has:

• forced the closure of newspapers
• made arbitrary arrests
• began the construction of 41 new prisons
• recently stepped up public hangings and stonings
• maintained secret prisons for the torture centers of political prisoners
• mistreated detained dissidents, including prolonged solitary confinement
• executed juveniles and homosexuals
  
• hanged 12 prisoners simultaneously on July 22, two of them being political prisoners
• denied the Holocaust
• called for the destruction of Israel
• supported international terrorism that targets innocent civilians and American troops
• pursued nuclear ambitions in opposition to international sanctions

The world we live in is insane. I can't believe this guy was allowed to walk around Columbia's campus today. He is one of the world's most dangerous geopolitical figures and deserves nothing less than a cold jail cell.

Sources: Here, here, and here.

Bush skips talks on climate change, extends middle finger at UN

The unilateral streak that has come to define the neocon Bush administration has once again reared its ugly head, this time at the United Nations talks on global warming. The gathering, which is bringing together the leaders of over 80 countries, is geared around efforts to combat human-instigated climate change.

The talks come several days after an announcement that melting temperatures this summer shrank the Arctic Ocean's ice cap to a record low and that the fabled Northwest Passage is now open.

George W. Bush, however, will not be there, and instead plans on convening his own meeting on how to address global warming. His hope is to avoid global treaties and anything that could give the United Nations jurisdiction over the issue.

The U.N. continues to exist as a toothless, and subsequently, useless entity -- thanks mostly to the U.S.'s utter disregard for the institution and all those countries who use this an excuse and inspiration to go it alone.

Meanwhile Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper is at the global warming talks, but his presence is about as useful as Bush's no-show. His own environmental advisory body, the National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy, directed sharp criticisms at the Conservatives for their climate-change strategy and accused them of overestimating what the plan will accomplish. The report claimed that Harper's plan is vague, uses questionable accounting methods and exaggerated greenhouse-gas cuts it would result in.

What a sad mess...