Comments on Sentient Developments: Nick Bostrom: "Why I hope the search for extraterr...

I agree it would be bad news to find extinct life ...

2008-05-23T21:22:00.000-04:00

I agree it would be bad news to find extinct life on Mars, but I don't agree it would be bad to find an advanced living civilization. That former would imply a great filter ahead of us, the latter would imply no great filter at all!
~ Brad

I understand the Great Paradox and the Von Neumann...

2008-04-30T17:23:00.000-04:00

I understand the Great Paradox and the Von Neumann machines - your blog in particular is a good place for finding information on these concepts.

I suppose I should have just agreed with Athena: I see some odd leaps of logic here.

Cliff, the Fermi Paradox was given added strength ...

2008-04-29T23:52:00.000-04:00

Cliff, the Fermi Paradox was given added strength in the 1970s with the whole Von Neumann replicator thing. A realization hit that Galactic colonization would be a rather pedestrian exercise given self-replicating probes -- something in the order of 10 million years or so. Which is a short amount of time given the age of the Galaxy.

So, the question remains, why hasn't even one civ over-run the Galaxy in this way? This argument is what really fuels the FP these days.

Thus, there is something that prevents a civilization from doing this -- the so-called Great Filter.

To be honest with you, I don't think we'd ever encounter an ET that's hopping from solar system to solar system. The technological know-how to engage in this kind of project is arguably more advanced than the act of disseminating Von Neumann probes.

George: I'm not convinced that finding an ET civil...

2008-04-29T16:37:00.000-04:00

George: I'm not convinced that finding an ET civilization around another star would be the worst thing ever.
Preventing outright colonization does not necessarily translate to extermination, and the ET species could be a sign that the Filter allows continued existence.

Also, "the further we advance as a species, the more we can assume that the Great Filter is behind us" seems like a fishy statement. As you've pointed out before, our greater technological ability leads to greater probability of disaster - nuclear holocaust, rampant black hole, unstoppable nanophage, environmental collapse, etc.
The logical conclusion would be, rather, that the more we advance as a species, the closer we draw to the Great Filter, whether it is inherent to intelligence or some external condition imposed by another intelligence.

So it's about "outright colonization," and not jus...

2008-04-29T08:10:00.000-04:00

So it's about "outright colonization," and not just communication? What if the Great Filter prevents interstellar/species dialogue? Perhaps civs cannot reach a sufficient technological platform to make this a reality.

I imagine our species could suffer an extinction well before the colonization point, and possibly still before our long-distance communications/observation goals are realized. The question is, which type of contact comes first?

Lurking? Like Jack McDevitt's omega clouds in the...

2008-04-28T22:31:00.000-04:00

Lurking? Like Jack McDevitt's omega clouds in the Hutch series? (*laughs*) Good SF, not good science.

Cliff, the longer we go without seeing signs of ET...

2008-04-28T22:21:00.000-04:00

Cliff, the longer we go without seeing signs of ETIs, and the further we advance as a species, the more we can assume that the Great Filter is behind us.

If we start colonizing star systems with great frequency, then we'll know for certain that the Filter is behind us.

If, however, we discover ET farting around a solar system or two, we know there's big trouble ahead -- something's still lurking out there that prevents a civilization from going about outright galactic colonization.

Having the same problem as Chris.

2008-04-28T20:17:00.000-04:00

Having the same problem as Chris.

Wait, I'm confused. So he's thankful when he sees...

2008-04-28T18:44:00.000-04:00

Wait, I'm confused.
So he's thankful when he sees no evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence, yet that very absence of evidence provides the basis for the Great Filter theory.

Is there an intermediate conclusion somewhere in there that I'm not recognizng?

Looking at some of your recent posts, it is fun to...

2008-04-28T18:18:00.000-04:00

Looking at some of your recent posts, it is fun to combine themes. For example, life extension is a gret deal for the individual and not such a great deal for the species.

If we guard our longevity closely we would never risk leaving the planet or even sending robots that could be traced back.

I read the article and found some odd leaps in log...

2008-04-28T12:21:00.000-04:00

I read the article and found some odd leaps in logic. When I have time and energy I will write a rebuttal, though it may not be for a while.