Comments on Sentient Developments: Sam Vaknin: The Ten Errors of Science Fiction

There is another possibility here: Let's say, for...

2010-06-30T08:44:34.857-04:00

There is another possibility here:

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that an ETI happens across Earth and rather than racing up and making first contact they sit back for a while and observe to see what they'd be getting themselves into. They would see a species that had just taken its first steps toward unmanned interplanetary travel (probes) and had made a few attempts at manned travel in local space (i.e., not farther than its moon). The race had just figured out how to construct nuclear weapons and is still locked into an us-vs-them mentality. This could be picked up by monitoring their activities planetside and the content of their broadcast media.

It seems reasonable for an ETI to decided that such a comparatively primitive species (compared to one which has figured out interstellar travel) would be too twitchy to risk making first contact. The dominant species on the planet barely trusts itself, so there's no telling what they might do if a dialogue was suddenly opened by a more advanced race. Maybe the dominant species on this planet would lob a couple of their heaviest-duty nukes at the ETI (never a good time), or maybe they'd open up on each other out of fear (the opportunity would be lost).

All things considered, it would make more sense for the ETI to record the location of Earth and come back later, hopefully after the human race had solved its problems and hopefully had set aside some of its less practical foibles.

I'm with you, George, though I find that Nick Bost...

2010-06-28T11:12:48.128-04:00

I'm with you, George, though I find that Nick Bostrom's "Great Filter" arguments fallacious.

Each time I hear him speak about this, it seems he's assuming this filter is necessarily of a negative nature (e.g. nuclear annihilation, supernovae).

I believe he's omitting two possibilities:
1- the "great filter" could be of a positive or neutral nature (e.g. all sufficiently advanced civilizations transcend the universe as we know it and are thus undetectable via our current technologies)
2- The great filter may not exist. It seems to me possible - almost by his own recent arguments - that no matter how advanced any civilization has become, it is impossible for it to travel the distances required (or even send information the distances required) to make contact with any other advanced civilization. In other words, the universe is simply too spacious for us to ever connect with any other alien civilization. While this seems unlikely to me, it certainly seems possible (and not merely theoretically so), and I can't understand why Nick omits such considerations. What do you think?

Also, cool pic to accompany your piece. Who's the artist? Reminds me of Wayne Barlowe.

The gross oversight was that the purpose of ETs in...

2010-06-28T10:26:23.823-04:00

The gross oversight was that the purpose of ETs in science fiction narratives is to provide a mirror so we may better explore our own humanity. That 24th century Klingons are violent wasn't the point... the point was for Cold War Americans and Russians to be less violent.

His word, not mine.

2010-06-28T08:15:26.153-04:00

His word, not mine.

Oh George, why use the word "alleged" when referri...

2010-06-28T03:54:58.722-04:00

Oh George, why use the word "alleged" when referring to our environmental destruction? Is the BP spill just not an issue?

Nice new theme though. :)